Your common sense is correct. In this game, it's 1 warning notice first to tell you to stop (you have to tick the "Agree to this warning" check box). If you persist, then the next notice they serve you is a straight ban (Unknown error has occured > Title Screen > Jackpot). So it's 2 strikes and you're out.
As far as i know, there are 2 kinds of warnings: 1 for falsifying GQ runs (the words "Guild Quest" are specifically mentioned), 1 for general falsifying of data (other game modes). The GQ warning already existed before the current GQ revamp. So you need to read the notice that K*ab serves you to know what triggered the notice, then you do not repeat the offence (obviously). Although, i do not know if you can have 1 GQ warning + 1 general warning on your account and still avoid the hammer. This mod has done a good job of evading the general warning, and only the general warning. GQ is still dangerous, as many unfortunate souls have reported here.
My understanding of the in-game news is that this mod is not the main offending mod. Out of the 3 types of misconducts they identified, only the Senkaimon one can be done by this mod. The other 2 are by another mod(s) it seems. BUT this doesn't mean they cannot revamp the detection system whole-sale to catch this mod also. I'll leave it at that.
Both my accounts are still clean. My dummy account has fast Ordeals/Valor times from 1-hit + Auto. I had used mods on my main to get Senkaimon done quickly, but on Manual and never faster than my personal best times. BTW, the Senkaimon timings on your profile can only go down (faster), never go up (slower). I'm of the opinion K*ab needs time to determine how fast the timing needs to be before it's deemed "suspicious" because for the old Tower of Forging, low-10 mins was already possible before Transcendence came along (there is a 2019 reddit thread on speedrunning Forging), so i feel they cannot/should not penalise based on past timings. The fairest way i can think of, is to offer every player (modder or not) a fresh start from ver 11.0.0 onwards.
Just wait till mid-Sept comes to learn your fate, for those who think they have committed any of those 3 offences. Right now K*ab are busy fixing Passport and Steam issues, LOL.
(if you'd read through my wall of text, i award you this ? )